The forecast and its source
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo estimated that assembly shipments of Apple’s anticipated foldable iPhone would reach roughly 7–8 million units in the second half of 2026, including 0.5–1 million in the third quarter. In his July 5 post, he suggested an announcement alongside other iPhones could precede a later start to preorders and sales.
Kuo compared that possible sequence with the iPhone X rollout. His estimates came from an industry survey; they were not an Apple announcement, a disclosed order book or a guarantee of retail stock.
Sources: Ming-Chi Kuo [1]
How to interpret availability claims
Assembly shipments, shipments to distributors and delivery to a customer are different measures. Even a correct production estimate cannot establish the date a particular country, retailer or configuration will have stock.
Anyone planning a purchase should distinguish an analyst scenario from confirmed pricing, warranty terms and delivery dates. A prediction of scarcity alone is a weak reason to pay a reseller’s premium or postpone a necessary replacement.
